UN emissions strategy signals narrowing opportunity to limit global warming
Islamabad, Nov 05,2026: The world still has an opportunity to limit global warming to below 2°C, but achieving that target will require substantially deeper emissions reductions by 2035 and stronger financial support for developing economies facing growing climate risks.
Global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall approximately 24% below 2025 levels by 2035 to keep warming below 2°C, compared with the 11–15% reductions expected under existing national climate commitments.
The gap highlights the challenge facing governments as they prepare for COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, where stronger climate action and financial support for vulnerable countries will remain important priorities.
According to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released on October 21, current policies would put the world on course for approximately 2.8°C of warming this century, while full implementation of existing national pledges would reduce the projected increase to 2.6–2.7°C.
The report also acknowledges for the first time that limiting warming to 1.5°C without temporarily exceeding that threshold is no longer possible, underscoring the importance of accelerating emissions reductions to prevent further temperature increases.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, remaining broadly unchanged from 2024, although emissions from fossil fuel combustion continued to increase.
By September 2026, 124 parties had submitted updated national climate commitments, but these had made only a limited difference to the projected global temperature increase.
The United States recorded the largest increase in emissions of any country in 2025, approximately 133 million tonnes, while its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement accounted for roughly half of the deterioration in the report’s warming projections.
Despite these challenges, the global energy transition has recorded significant progress over the past decade.
Since 2015, renewable energy capacity has expanded approximately three times faster than the International Energy Agency had projected, while renewable sources overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in 2025.
Investment in clean energy is expected to reach around $2.2 trillion in 2026, nearly twice the amount being invested in fossil fuels.
However, global consumption of coal, oil and gas remains at record levels, while fossil fuel subsidies increased from approximately $660 billion in 2018 to $920 billion in 2024, complicating efforts to accelerate emissions reductions.
The implications extend beyond energy markets to economic development, food security and climate resilience, particularly in countries already exposed to extreme weather events.
According to the UNEP report, every five years of CO₂ emissions at current levels could add approximately 0.1°C to peak global warming.
Under existing policies, there is a 16–33% probability that global warming could exceed 2°C as early as 2050.
The report’s pathway for returning to 1.5°C by 2100 also relies on removing approximately 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during this century, a scale of carbon removal that UNEP itself considers uncertain.
For climate-vulnerable developing economies, closing the emissions gap will depend heavily on access to affordable international financing.
Dr Bakht Bilal Khan, Head of Business Development and Climate Action at WeatherWalay, told Wealth Pakistan that the global emissions gap was fundamentally linked to the availability of climate finance.
He noted that G20 countries accounted for approximately 76% of global greenhouse gas emissions, while existing national commitments worldwide would reduce global emissions by only 5–8% by 2030, compared with the 18% reduction required under the more ambitious pathway.
Khan said the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities required countries with historically higher emissions to take the lead in decarbonisation and provide financial support to developing economies.
He emphasised the importance of delivering the $300 billion annual climate finance goal by 2035 through grants and concessional financing rather than adding to the debt burdens of vulnerable countries.
“Without finance, there is no ambition; without ambition, there is no 2°C,” he said.
Khan added that Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, needed access to affordable capital to accelerate its clean energy transition and avoid long-term dependence on fossil fuel infrastructure.
Aisha Khan, Chief Executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change (CSCCC) and the Mountain and Glacier Protection Organization (MGPO), said developing countries such as Pakistan should use the findings to strengthen their case for greater international financing for climate adaptation.
She also emphasised the importance of increasing support for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, particularly as limiting global warming to 1.5°C no longer appeared to be a realistic objective without temporarily exceeding that threshold.
For vulnerable economies, stronger adaptation financing and support for addressing climate-related losses will be increasingly important as higher temperatures intensify risks to agriculture, infrastructure and livelihoods.
The UNEP roadmap indicates that limiting warming to below 2°C remains achievable, but the opportunity is narrowing as delays increase the scale and cost of future emissions reductions.
The challenge for governments heading to COP31 will be to translate climate commitments into faster emissions reductions while ensuring that developing countries receive the financial resources needed to strengthen resilience and pursue cleaner economic growth.
For countries such as Pakistan, progress on both fronts could help reduce exposure to future climate related losses while supporting a more sustainable energy transition.
